Dispatch #257: Crypto, meet retirement

On this patch of your weekly Dispatch: 

Market forged

Bullish construction with room to run

Bitcoin is sustaining a bullish setup throughout each day by day and weekly timeframes. With key resistance at $120,000 and $123,000, and robust help at $117,000 and $114,000, the subsequent strikes hinge on follow-through momentum — and, as all the time, macro.

On the weekly chart, the development stays clearly bullish. The Common Directional Index (ADX) is elevated, confirming development energy; the Transferring Common Convergence Divergence (MACD) is firmly constructive; and the Relative Power Index (RSI) continues to rise, supporting constructive sentiment. Solely the Stochastic Oscillator is flashing early indicators of potential development exhaustion — one thing to observe as worth nears higher Bollinger Bands.

The day by day chart echoes this optimism. The MACD has simply flipped constructive, the Stochastic is climbing however not but overbought, and RSI sits in impartial territory, giving bulls room to push increased. Whereas the ADX on this timeframe stays comparatively low, it's beginning to climb, suggesting that upward momentum could also be constructing.

With inflation information and macro headlines driving volatility this week, all eyes stay on how Bitcoin behaves round these well-defined technical ranges.

The large thought

Crypto, meet retirement

It’s official: People might quickly be capable of embody Bitcoin, non-public fairness, actual property, and different options of their 401(ok)s. On August 7, President Trump signed an executive order directing federal businesses to clear the best way for these belongings in retirement plans, together with the $8.7 trillion at the moment sitting in 401(ok)s.

It’s a shift with monumental potential, particularly for crypto. The order instructs the Division of Labor and the SEC to create new tips and take away outdated limitations. The aim? Make it simpler for employers to supply diversified retirement choices that transcend shares and bonds, and convey digital belongings into the retirement mainstream.

So what would this imply in follow? Even modest allocations from retirement plans may generate billions in structural demand for crypto. Primarily based on data from the Funding Firm Institute (ICI), a 0.50% allocation adopted by simply 25% of plans would translate to $15.3 billion flowing into digital belongings.

What about the remainder of the world?

Whereas the U.S. is now shifting decisively, it’s not alone in exploring crypto for retirement. Australian self-managed pension funds had been among the many first to spend money on cryptocurrency as early as 2019.. In Germany, regulated funds can allocate as much as 20% to crypto since 2021. Norway’s state retirement fund invests in cryptocurrencies and buys shares within the likes of MicroStrategy and MARA, which maintain Bitcoin on their stability sheets. Within the U.Ok., no less than one pension fund has allotted 3% to Bitcoin, whereas Canada has seen rising adoption by way of ETFs, with provincial pension funds cautiously getting into the area. Brazil, against this, has prohibited crypto in closed pension funds, citing volatility and investor safety. 

These steps fluctuate in scale and maturity, however all of them mirror a rising recognition: crypto is being evaluated not simply as an asset, however as a reserve, a yield supply, and a long-term hedge.

The pushback

Nonetheless, there’s loads of warning. Critics warn that non-public belongings and crypto carry increased charges, much less transparency, and extra volatility than conventional 401(ok) investments. Some monetary planners argue that with out correct training and strict guardrails, traders may very well be lured in by hype, whereas non-public fairness funds can cost as much as 20% in efficiency charges.

However right here’s the factor: you don’t have to attend for permission – or depend upon a retirement plan supplier – to construct long-term wealth with crypto.

At Nexo, you'll be able to already entry a full suite of digital asset funding instruments. Whether or not you’re incomes yield on stablecoins, rising your Bitcoin place over time, or utilizing Twin Funding methods to maximise accumulation, you'll be able to create your own retirement plan.

What comes next

For now, the ball is in the regulators’ court. The Labor Department, SEC, and Treasury have 180 days to produce guidance. Plan sponsors and recordkeepers will also need to build infrastructure, including options for target date funds, managed sleeves, and ETF integrations.

But the direction is clear: crypto is at the table of retirement conversations. And while it may start as a small allocation inside a long-term path, that’s how all big shifts begin.

Bitcoin & Ethereum

Will macro trigger new all-time highs or halt the rally?

Over the weekend, Bitcoin surged past $122,000, nearing its previous all-time high and triggering a second wave of bullish positioning. Ethereum broke through $4,300, its highest level since 2021, on the back of sustained ETF inflows and large corporate treasury activity.

Data pointed to $253 million in weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows, alongside $461 million for Ethereum, as evidence that institutional demand remains the key driver in this cycle. ETH's outperformance is drawing comparisons to the 2020 rotation that preceded its last breakout. As always, macro holds the final word — and this week, that means inflation.

Today’s U.S. inflation print did little to shake Bitcoin’s trajectory. The data for July was mixed, with headline CPI slightly below expectations but core inflation rising more than forecast. The report likely wasn’t far enough off the mark to change market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in September, with odds still near 84% going into the print. In the minutes after the release, Bitcoin hovered just below $119,000, while Ethereum climbed 3%, continuing to lead on short-term momentum.

With Bitcoin flirting with resistance and Ethereum just 11% off its all-time high, volatility around CPI and Fed commentary will shape the next leg up. If not — well, you’ve seen how quickly this market resets and reclaims.

Crypto & Sports

Utility on the fairway

The first-ever Nexo Championship wrapped up this Sunday in Scotland, delivering more than a trophy — winner Grant Forrest took home a $50,000 prize in NEXO Tokens, alongside a $10,000 course report bonus and a $467,500 purse.

It marked the primary time digital belongings have been used as a part of a performance-based award in elite golf, displaying how crypto is shifting from sponsorship into actual utility. As Nexo's Dimi Stalimirov wrote in his latest piece, that is the evolution of crypto in sport: much less about logos, extra about worth, alignment, and belief.

Macroeconomic roundup

Inflation, charges, and retail

A pivotal week for inflation information and rate-cut expectations, as crypto assessments its sensitivity to macro alerts.

U.Ok. GDP MoM (Aug 14): After a robust Q1 pushed by pre-tariff exports, Q2 is predicted to indicate contraction. A weaker print would add strain on the BoE and help the enchantment of crypto as a non-sovereign hedge.

U.S. Preliminary Jobless Claims (Aug 14): Forecasts level to a slight rise to 229,000. An uptick would reinforce labor market softness and assist justify a dovish Fed pivot — a possible tailwind for Bitcoin.

U.S. Producer Worth Index (Aug 14):  If PPI surprises to the upside, inflation issues might return and drag on crypto; a delicate studying would help a continued disinflation narrative.

U.S. Retail Gross sales MoM (Aug 15): Anticipated to dip barely from 0.6% to 0.5%. A beat would strengthen the “resilient shopper” narrative and weigh on crypto by way of increased yields, whereas a miss may revive easing hopes.

The week’s most attention-grabbing information story

Lengthy-term holders present an extended horizon

After one of many greatest profit-taking durations on report in July, with realized income topping $1 billion per day, Bitcoin’s long-term holders are stepping again. Revenue realization has slowed notably in August, with 3–5 12 months holders now main the promoting, in distinction to the 6–12 month ETF-era cohort that drove peaks final winter. This marks a shift: as an alternative of chasing tops, seasoned holders seem content material to attend as institutional curiosity and DeFi development restore confidence. With macro headwinds and no main catalysts on deck, robust fingers appear to be enjoying the lengthy sport – holding again, not out.

The numbers

The week’s most attention-grabbing numbers

70 million – The tough variety of People who take part in 401(ok)s.

$2.6 billion – The quantity raised by crypto startups in July. 

1.75 million – File variety of day by day ETH transactions reached on August 8

$117 million – Harvard College’s place in Bitcoin ETFs, topping Nvidia and Google stakes.

$4.96 billion – The worth of BitMine’s 1,150,263 ETH holdings, making it the biggest ETH treasury.

Scorching subjects

The Nexo Championship sets records and firsts.

An interesting take on Big Tech concentration in the S&P 500.

Generative AI patent applications.

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].