How massive is Wall Avenue’s urge for food for BTC?

On this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

ETH’s recent tailwinds
Nexo leads in lending
Economics at Jackson Gap

Market forged

BTC: Cooling off earlier than the following transfer?

Bitcoin has pulled again barely from its all-time excessive, with charts suggesting a pause in momentum moderately than a decisive reversal. On the weekly view, the Stochastic Oscillator is easing from overbought territory, the Transferring Common Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveals early divergence, and the Relative Power Index (RSI) has softened — all pointing to a cooling part.

On the every day chart, bullish power has moderated, with oscillators trending decrease and the MACD histogram dipping slightly below the zero line. This means a shift towards consolidation, although draw back stays contained for now.

Key ranges to observe: resistance at $116,000–$117,000, with stronger resistance at $120,000. On the draw back, help lies at $114,000, adopted by $112,000–$110,000.

The massive thought

A shrinking provide meets relentless demand

Final week, Bitcoin surged to a recent all-time excessive just above $124,400, breaking via key resistance earlier than pulling again barely. Whereas the transfer sparked short-term volatility, the deeper story suggests this might solely be the start.

Behind the scenes, Wall Avenue is loading up. Removed from taking income, establishments are accelerating their Bitcoin accumulation — not solely via spot ETFs but in addition through crypto-linked shares and oblique publicity performs.

In Q2 alone, Brevan Howard grew its IBIT stake by 71% to greater than $2.3 billion. Jane Avenue now holds extra in IBIT than in Tesla. Goldman Sachs, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Wells Fargo all boosted their exposure, whereas Harvard and Norway’s $1.7 trillion sovereign wealth fund quietly scaled into Bitcoin-adjacent equities like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet.

The ETF wave is reshaping Bitcoin’s market construction. BlackRock’s IBIT alone now holds over 744,000 BTC. In complete, U.S. spot ETFs management greater than 1.3 million BTC — practically 6.5% of the entire provide — and are on pace to hit 1.5 million by year-end if present inflows persist.

With simply 450 BTC mined per day after the April halving, ETF demand is now constantly outpacing new provide. A lot of this BTC is functionally off the market, making a gradual however regular liquidity squeeze. This imbalance means Bitcoin’s provide is getting tighter, so even small will increase in demand can push the value up sharply. Over time, the market adjusts by transferring larger.

The macro backdrop can also be turning favorable. Futures markets are pricing in an 80%+ chance of Fed price cuts by September, pushing the greenback decrease and danger urge for food larger. In Washington, crypto is benefiting from regulatory readability — together with the GENIUS Act and new 401(k) guidelines that open the door for Bitcoin in retirement plans.

Persistent accumulators in play

This time, it isn't nearly retail pleasure or momentum chasing. As crypto analyst Udi Wertheimer not too long ago argued, we’ve entered a brand new period of persistent accumulators — establishments like MicroStrategy that preserve accumulating BTC as their core technique. In contrast to previous cycles, right this moment’s market options this regular institutional bid alongside a progressively shrinking float — circumstances that trace at a possible provide squeeze down the road, with Wertheimer even suggesting long-term targets close to $400,000.

The value motion could look risky, however the underlying pattern is tougher to disregard: provide is thinning whereas institutional demand continues to construct. Slightly than marking a peak, the most recent all-time excessive could possibly be setting the stage for a brand new part in Bitcoin’s evolution — one the place shortage is not only a story, however a market actuality. And with the halving regularly lowering new issuance, that shortage is about to deepen additional, leaving the market little selection however to reprice larger over time.

Sizzling in crypto

Nexo: Nonetheless main in lending

Galaxy Analysis’s newest lending report locations Nexo as the second largest crypto lender globally, alongside Tether and Galaxy. With a $1.96 billion mortgage ebook and an 11% market share, Nexo is a key participant in powering crypto’s credit score markets.

At a time when a number of former giants within the sector have exited or downsized, Nexo’s place highlights each our resilience and skill to scale sustainably. The report notes that the highest three lenders now management greater than 70% of the tracked CeFi market — with Nexo firmly embedded since 2018.

By persevering with to serve each retail and institutional shoppers globally, we’ve not solely weathered previous market cycles however strengthened our position as one of many trade’s most trusted wealth platforms.

Еthereum

Is that this ETH’s period?

Ether is steadily gaining floor in 2025. ETFs drew practically $3 billion in inflows final week, serving to spot crypto ETFs hit file $40 billion buying and selling volumes. Regardless of a 33% outperformance vs Bitcoin prior to now month, social sentiment stays cooler, which Santiment says could be a healthier setup.

Supportive tailwinds are constructing. Stablecoin regulation is boosting exercise on Ethereum’s rails, whereas BitMine has added 1.2 million ETH to its treasury. Commonplace Chartered lifted its year-end target to $7,500, and Fundstrat calls ETH “arguably the biggest macro trade for the next 10 to 15 years.”

Muted hype, robust inflows, and structural demand counsel Ethereum’s momentum could solely be beginning to take form.

Macroeconomic roundup

All eyes on Jackson Gap symposium

Crypto markets entered the week cautiously, with merchants balancing latest positive factors towards a dense lineup of U.S. macro occasions. With price minimize expectations now firmly priced in, the main target has shifted as to whether these upcoming macro indicators would affirm the narrative or problem it:

FOMC Minutes (Wed): Markets will parse July’s Fed assembly notes for clues on price cuts. FedWatch now reveals an 85% likelihood of a September minimize to 4.00–4.25%. A dovish tilt may help danger property, whereas hawkish indicators danger extra draw back.

Jobless Claims (Thu): Labor market cooling has grow to be central to Fed coverage bets. Claims have steadied close to 224K; any uptick may reinforce rate-cut expectations and provides Bitcoin a tailwind.

Jackson Gap (Fri): Powell’s keynote has a historical past of transferring markets. Merchants will look ahead to affirmation of easing forward — or a reminder that the Fed stays cautious.

With inflation nonetheless sticky at 2.7% and merchants closely positioned for cuts, this week’s data and Powell’s phrases may set the tone for Bitcoin’s subsequent breakout try.

The week’s most attention-grabbing knowledge story

Altcoins open curiosity masses up

Altcoins are seeing a surge in conviction — and leverage. Open curiosity throughout the highest tokens has climbed to a file $47 billion, fueled by pronounced worth motion in Ethereum, which is close to its 2021 highs. The build-up highlights a extra reflexive market atmosphere: elevated leverage can amplify each rallies and reversals, leaving altcoins extra uncovered to sharp swings. Whereas Bitcoin’s choices markets stay priced for low volatility, the distinction with surging altcoin exercise suggests merchants are bracing for greater strikes — and the following assessments at key resistance ranges may determine the route of this cycle.

The numbers

The week’s most attention-grabbing numbers

3.1% – Share of Bitcoin’s provide now held by Technique and Metaplanet mixed.
$150,000–$200,000 – Bernstein’s 12-month worth goal vary for Bitcoin.
107,540 TPS – Solana’s new stress-test throughput file.
775 BTC – Metaplanet’s newest purchase, taking its stash to just about 19K BTC.
$3.7 billion – Crypto miner TeraWulf’s Google-backed AI internet hosting pivot.

Sizzling subjects

Pioneers then. Leaders now. Always Nexo.

Will 2025 be ETH’s best summer?

Could there be a better catalyst for BTC?

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].