Markets Right now – July 13, 2026

Each day evaluation of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo analysis desk.

Bitcoin holds floor as geopolitical tensions resurface

Bitcoin holds above $62,000 regardless of renewed U.S.-Iran tensions that unwound final week's fragile de-escalation commerce. Following developments within the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump signaled that the June ceasefire was over. Oil briefly lifted earlier than markets steadied. U.S. futures pointed decrease Monday. Asian markets cut up: Tokyo and Seoul bought off sharply, Hong Kong held regular. That is the primary week of Q2 earnings season, and the macro calendar is unusually dense. U.S. inflation knowledge, Q2 financial institution earnings, and Kevin Warsh's first semi-annual financial coverage testimony to Congress all fall throughout the similar buying and selling week.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin has been boxed in the identical vary since mid-June, resistance at $64,441 capping each rally, help at $58,457 absorbing the promoting, and the renewed Iran tensions have not damaged it both manner. It sits simply 3.0% beneath the 50-day shifting common however remains to be 14.8% beneath the 200-day. Glassnode knowledge reveals spot promoting stress has pale. June's internet promoting averaged practically 2,000 BTC a day; July's has slowed to only 53 BTC a day, the calmest month of 2026 exterior April.

ETF flows affirm it from one other angle. The previous ten days cut up between influx and outflow, netting barely constructive. Spot quantity is down by half because the early-July spike, suggesting the decline in ETF internet belongings tracks value, not redemptions. This stability meets every week that may break it both manner. June U.S. CPI lands hours earlier than Fed Chair Warsh's first congressional testimony on July 14. Charges are the early sign to observe, and it will transfer via a skinny market.

Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum's spot ETFs snapped an eight-week outflow streak. They added $84.42 million internet for the week of July 6–10, about 0.04% of ETH's market cap. Worth decoupled from the broader alt advanced beginning round July 8. ETH hit a 30-day excessive on July 12, up 15% over two weeks. Quantity stayed skinny, although, final week's every day common ran at roughly a 3rd of the previous yr's typical stage.

SOL and XRP rolled over the identical week ETH pulled forward. Their ETF flows have been even smaller relative to market cap: SOL added simply $930,400, XRP shed $7.18 million. Worth adopted. Each fell over the week, pulling again from current highs. Quantity advised the identical story throughout all three. SOL traded at about 40% of its yearly every day common final week, XRP at underneath 30%, the thinnest of the group. That leaves the alt advanced brief on conviction heading into this week's Fed testimony and inflation knowledge.

Macro & Institutional
July is traditionally robust for markets, and Q2 earnings help that seasonality on the floor.FactSet expects 23.6% y/y S&P 500 earnings development. However that power is concentrated in Vitality and Tech estimate revisions, not broad-based, which is why financial institution earnings this week carry extra weight than regular. They're the cleanest learn on credit score high quality and shopper resilience beneath a tech-driven index. The larger swing issue for danger belongings, although, is rates of interest. Markets now value a 52% likelihood of a September Fed hike, double final month's odds, and that repricing wants knowledge to carry up. AI capex is the opposite stress level on the fairness aspect. Spending estimates have trended greater for quarters, however with some AI-spender shares already underneath stress, any signal of hesitation this earnings season would problem the narrative. Layered on high, the Iran-U.S. escalation pushed Brent up practically 5% intraday Monday, from $76 to a $79.8 excessive. If this hardens right into a sustained provide shock somewhat than settling down, it feeds straight again into the speed story.

Wanting Forward
June CPI and PPI (Tuesday, Wednesday) will check whether or not the Fed's newly hawkish tilt has knowledge to justify it, coming proper after minutes confirmed half the FOMC now penciling in a hike this yr. Financial institution earnings from JPMorgan, Citigroup, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley matter much less for the headline development numbers than for what they reveal beneath: credit score high quality, mortgage demand, and shopper resilience, a learn on the actual economic system that tech-driven index good points have been masking. China's GDP print and a possible Financial institution of Canada maintain spherical out every week the place development and inflation alerts arrive virtually concurrently, whereas the reignited U.S.-Iran battle retains oil, and by extension inflation expectations, because the wildcard that might reshape how markets learn the whole lot else.

Writer: Dessislava Ianeva, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch

This materials is produced by Nexo for informational functions solely and doesn't represent monetary, funding, authorized, or tax recommendation, or a advice to transact in any digital asset. Views are the writer's as of the date of publication and will change with out discover. Data is from sources believed dependable, however Nexo makes no guarantee as to its accuracy and accepts no legal responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on this materials.