Polymarket Banned in Portugal, Hungary as Prediction Market Pushback Grows – Decrypt

Briefly
Polymarket is going through bans in Portugal and Hungary, together with a lawsuit in Nevada and actions in different states.
The prediction market stands accused in a number of locations of providing unregulated playing companies.
Nonetheless, prediction markets operators argue that they aren't offering playing companies, however reasonably occasion contracts.
Polymarket has kicked off 2026 going through a brand new slew of regulatory actions from jurisdictions in Europe and the U.S., even because it edges its manner again into the American market. On Friday, each the Hungarian Supervisory Authority for Regulated Actions and the Portuguese Gaming Regulatory Authority issued bans in opposition to the prediction market, accusing it of unlawful playing exercise.  “The web site just isn't licensed to supply betting in Portugal, and beneath nationwide regulation, betting on political occasions or happenings, whether or not nationwide or worldwide, just isn't permitted,” Portuguese regulators instructed native outlet Rádio Renascença.The identical day, the Nevada Gaming Management Board filed a civil enforcement motion in opposition to Polymarket, asking the courtroom “for a declaration and injunction to cease Polymarket from providing unlicensed wagering.” Its actions observe an identical one in Tennessee earlier this month, when the state’s sports activities betting regulator ordered Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com to close down their sports activities prediction markets and refund wagers. Prediction markets have exploded in reputation during the last two years, significantly forward of the U.S. presidential election in 2024. The markets, together with high gamers Polymarket and its essential competitor, Kalshi, are seeing mixed volumes of over $13.5 billion month-to-month and processing over 43 million transactions, in response to a November 2025 report by Dune and Keyrock. (Disclaimer: Decrypt’s dad or mum firm Dastan operates prediction market platform Myriad.)The controversy surrounding them hinges on the declare by prediction markets that they aren't playing platforms. In April, the CEO of Kalshi—which can be going through a category motion lawsuit within the Southern District of New York, filed final week, which contends it operates as an “unlawful and unlicensed sports activities guide”—Tarek Mansour instructed Axios that prediction markets supply “occasions contracts,” not bets.”I simply do not actually know what this has to do with playing. If we're playing, then I feel you are mainly calling your entire monetary market playing,” he stated on the time, describing the market as “an open monetary market” the place folks commerce in opposition to one another as a substitute of betting in opposition to a sportsbook.However regulators beg to vary.Additional compounding the problem is that in lots of locations, betting on the end result of political occasions is prohibited—together with in Portugal and likewise Taiwan, the place Polymarket customers have been investigated for betting on the end result of the latest presidential elections. Considerations have additionally been raised concerning the extent of insider buying and selling on prediction markets. Earlier this month, a Polymarket person revamped $436,000 after appropriately betting that former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro can be faraway from energy earlier than January 31. The wager was made simply hours earlier than U.S. forces eliminated him, resulting in accusations the person had advance information of what was going to occur.It prompted U.S. Consultant Ritchie Torres (D-NY) to draft a invoice prohibiting federal workers from utilizing prediction markets when in possession of related insider information.That stated, on the Federal degree, there was a thaw in attitudes in the direction of prediction markets in step with Trump’s favorable stance in the direction of crypto. In November, the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee authorised the return of Polymarket to the U.S. market. It was beforehand banned and fined $1.4 million in 2022 for regulatory compliance failures. Kevin de Patoul, CEO of Keyrock, instructed Decrypt that prediction markets are a captivating take a look at case for blockchain’s core promise of turning collective intelligence into tradable, verifiable information.“However they’re additionally exhibiting us how fragile that may be when incentives or visibility are misaligned,” he stated. “It’s evident there’s a necessity for clearer boundaries between participation, governance, and affect. Markets constructed on trustless programs nonetheless want trusted frameworks in the event that they’re going to tell something significant past hypothesis.”“The subsequent part will rely upon who can design markets that protect open entry whereas embedding transparency and compliance by design,” de Patoul added. “That’s how I see prediction markets evolve from leisure to dependable, institutional-grade alerts.”Whether or not Polymarket might be allowed again into jurisdictions like Portugal and Hungary is unclear. The ban in Hungary, for example, is short-term. In a weblog, regulation agency CMS stated that in idea, a number of outcomes stay potential, together with the lifting of the short-term block. Nonetheless, enforcement developments recommend that the authority might finally take a firmer place. “Additional regulatory measures could also be utilized, relying on the authority’s closing evaluation of Polymarket’s actions,” its Budapest-based attorneys wrote. “The potential for the block being eliminated can't be completely excluded at this stage.”Decrypt reached out to Polymarket for touch upon the bans, however didn't instantly obtain a response.Every day Debrief NewsletterStart day-after-day with the highest information tales proper now, plus authentic options, a podcast, movies and extra.