Bitcoin: Navigating the Bullish Battle Above $100K

Bitcoin: Navigating the Bullish Battle Above $100K
This weekend has didn't ship the reduction retail merchants hoped for, bringing extra retracements and the emergence of bearish patterns. The extremely anticipated “Santa rally” appears more and more out of attain as macroeconomic uncertainty weighs closely in the marketplace.
A number of main cryptocurrencies are underperforming at present, with notable losers together with SUI ($SUI), down 6.5% after peaking at its all-time excessive of $4.89 final Friday, together with PEPE ($PEPE), BONK ($BONK), and Polkadot ($DOT), all dropping roughly 6%. Including to the downturn, Cardano ($ADA), Fantom ($FTM), and Hedera ($HBAR – click on for full perception) have every fallen by over 5%, reflecting a broad retreat throughout the altcoin market.
The worldwide crypto market cap at present sits at $3.6 trillion, marking a 1.2% decline previously 24 hours, whereas buying and selling quantity has dropped sharply by 23.93% (typical for Saturday). Bitcoin's dominance has elevated barely to 55.74%, as traders shift towards safer bets amid the rising uncertainty. In the meantime, the Altcoin Season Index on CoinMarketCapsuggests Bitcoin stays firmly answerable for the market, leaving altcoins struggling to achieve traction.
It’s straightforward to really feel pessimistic in moments like these, however seasoned traders know the drill. In spite of everything, when you’ve been by a couple of of those wild four-year cycles, the technique stays the identical: zoom out, ignore the noise, and put together for strategic shopping for alternatives.
Let’s break down the market chief,  the king of cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin ($BTC):
The Rectangle Sample and $74K Assist
Let’s first deal with the elephant within the room: the rectangle sample that fashioned again in February this 12 months, shortly after the spot ETF approval in January 2024. This sample broke to the upside on the election outcomes, hitting its full goal of $99,000 completely earlier than turning into a robust resistance degree (now flipped into principal short-term assist). Now, the rectangle’s higher edge at $74,000 is taking part in a important assist function, usually thought-about the “line within the sand” for a lot of BTC traders.
Including additional assist to this rectangle is the 200-day shifting common (inexperienced line), which at present sits at $69,000 and is gaining upside momentum. Traditionally, the 200-day MA serves as a robust dynamic assist in bull markets. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s important decoupling above this degree additionally raises issues of a possible return-to-mean situation, which may see the worth retrace to align with this long-term development. Have an excellent take a look at 1d:
If $74,000 have been to interrupt with affirmation, it may set off a wave of exits, with the subsequent logical cease being a take a look at of the rectangle’s backside round $49,000–$50,000. Whereas such a correction doesn’t need to occur (or not less than not till the subsequent bear market), it’s price noting {that a} breakdown to $74K would characterize a 27-28% retracement from the ATH. Brutal because it sounds, this may be a comparatively regular correction inside a BTC bull market.
The $107K Bull Flag: Nonetheless in Play?
One of the vital important bullish macro formations for Bitcoin this 12 months started with the SEC’s groundbreaking ETF approval. The January–Might 2024 bull flag (inexperienced on the 1D chart) stays lively, with a transparent goal at $107,000. This goal is not any joke, particularly for the reason that flag’s decrease trendline extension has acted as a reversal level thrice, reinforcing its significance.
Curiously, on the 4-hour chart, one other bullish pennant sample (purple) mirrors this flag’s goal at $107,500. Two impartial patterns aligning on the identical worth degree give additional weight to this goal, making it a key projected take-profit zone.
This alignment of patterns illustrates Bitcoin’s broader bullish potential, offered short-term challenges don’t derail momentum.
The Rising Wedge and Present Challenges
Whereas the long-term outlook factors greater, BTC is at present trapped in a rising wedge on the 4-hour chart, a bearish sample by classical charting requirements. Notably, the wedge’s backside was fashioned by two important December flash crashes, which now act as important ranges to look at.
$101,000 is holding—for now. Whereas Bitcoin briefly broke above six figures, the breakout lacked quantity affirmation and momentum, leaving the worth susceptible to a pullback. By the point you learn this, the $100K+ worth may already be historical past.
If the rising wedge breaks down, the goal aligns virtually completely with the 0.382 Fibonacci degree slightly below $87,000.
An in depth beneath $90,000 would additionally invalidate the bullish pennant sample, considerably weakening the bullish case.
Momentum Verify: RSI Alerts Blended however Worrisome
The every day RSI stays comparatively ‘bullish’, at present holding simply above 64 after cooling down from an overbought interval in November. This regular place is supported by a robust RSI trendline that has been rising since August 2024 (seen within the chart because the purple trendline). So long as RSI respects this trendline and continues its gradual upward motion, Bitcoin retains the momentum for additional beneficial properties.
Nevertheless, issues come up once we analyze the 4-hour RSI, which reveals indicators of exhaustion. The RSI solely reached 76 throughout BTC’s December 5 ATH of $103,700, forming a decrease excessive in comparison with earlier overbought readings. That is an instance of bearish divergence, the place worth makes the next excessive whereas RSI makes a decrease excessive. In easier phrases, which means that whereas the worth climbed, the underlying momentum weakened—a basic purple flag that always precedes corrections or consolidations.
Including to the combined sentiment, quantity throughout BTC’s breakout above $100,000 was lackluster, a basic purple flag for sustainability in bullish worth motion.
As of now, Bitcoin stays bullish so long as it holds above the 50-day SMA (yellow line) on the every day chart, at present sitting close to $99,000, which additionally aligns with a key horizontal assist degree. For bulls to regain full management, the wedge have to be invalidated by a robust every day shut above $103,000, ideally with a notable quantity spike.
Key Concepts to Commerce This
Breakout Above $103K: A robust every day shut above $103,000 with a transparent quantity spike would invalidate the wedge and sign momentum to focus on $107K. Look ahead to follow-through on the 4-hour timeframe to verify the breakout.
Buying and selling the Wedge: 
Use the decrease trendline of the wedge for potential lengthy entries on worth reversals. Affirmation can come from bullish candle patterns (e.g., hammers) or RSI rebounding from oversold zones.
Do Nothing: 
The most secure technique is most probably to simply wait. With the FOMC assembly looming on Wednesday, markets are more likely to stay hesitant. As a substitute, take into account scouting for entry factors to capitalize on a possible retracement (Sunday to Monday night time can be my guess).
Abstract: A Difficult Saturday Evening
As of Saturday night time, Bitcoin stays in a fragile scenario. Buying and selling above the short-term bullish 50 SMA (yellow line) on the every day chart and holding the horizontal assist at $99,000 retains BTC in a bullish posture. Nevertheless, for the king to actually keep robust on this timeframe, the rising wedge have to be invalidated with a robust shut above $103,000, ideally backed by a big quantity spike.
Including to the complexity, the Worry & Greed Index has returned to Excessive Greed (80) territory, following a short dip throughout current liquidations.

Supply:  
The issue? These liquidations didn't reset sentiment correctly, leaving the market overly optimistic with out clearing sufficient leverage. This makes the present setup much more perilous, as extreme greed usually precedes sharp corrections.
In the meantime, the Altcoin Season Index at present sits at 60, signaling a part of indecision. Whereas the index stays above impartial territory, the sharp drop from final week's 83 confirms what we’re seeing throughout the market: altcoin season is suspended—not fully referred to as off, however definitely dropping steam. Altcoins will seemingly proceed struggling till Bitcoin (and $ETH – linkto evaluation) both consolidates with energy or resolves its present patterns.
Let’s be actual—this text may really feel outdated by Monday if BTC does print a decisive candle quickly to focus on the bullish patterns described. December, regardless of Moonvember’s implausible run, has been harder than anticipated. The crypto market is undoubtedly extra advanced now than final month—and even final weekend.
The simple a part of this bull market is over. Santa or no Santa, issues are about to get wild. And when Trump takes workplace alongside the brand new, allegedly crypto-friendly management, we’ll be in for a market atmosphere nobody’s actually ready for.Disclaimer: This text is offered for informational functions solely. It's not provided or meant for use as authorized, tax, funding, monetary, or different recommendation.